Japan’s New Prime Minister and the Evolving Dynamics of East Asian Relations

In early October 2023, Japan welcomed a new leader, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, who stepped into office with a unique opportunity to reshape Japan’s foreign relations, particularly with South Korea. Known for his expertise in defense, Ishiba has indicated a commitment to continuing the policies of his predecessor, Kishida Fumio, which focused on improving bilateral relations with Seoul. This shift comes at a crucial time, as both nations face a series of external threats that necessitate closer cooperation, particularly in the security domain.

A Positive Shift in Japan-South Korea Relations

Historically, Japan and South Korea have endured a tumultuous relationship, often marred by disputes over wartime history and territorial claims. However, the current geopolitical climate has fostered an unusually positive atmosphere for rapprochement. Ishiba’s administration appears poised to build on recent diplomatic strides made under Kishida, particularly in the context of security collaboration with the United States. This cooperative spirit is not only beneficial for Japan and South Korea but also aligns with the interests of the European Union (EU), which faces similar challenges in its own geopolitical landscape.

Shared Challenges: North Korea, Russia, and China

The EU’s interest in a stable Japan-South Korea relationship is underscored by the shared security threats posed by North Korea, Russia, and China. North Korea’s recent actions, including its declaration of South Korea as a "principal enemy" and its growing military cooperation with Russia, have heightened concerns across the region. Reports of North Korean soldiers assisting Russia in its war against Ukraine further complicate the security landscape, emphasizing the need for a united front among democratic nations.

Simultaneously, China’s assertive behavior in the South China Sea and its military maneuvers around Taiwan have raised alarms in both East Asia and Europe. The EU recognizes that a strong alliance between Japan and South Korea is essential for addressing these multifaceted threats, facilitating coordinated responses that can enhance regional stability.

The Role of Diplomacy in Reconciliation

The thawing of relations between Japan and South Korea can be traced back to a bold diplomatic initiative by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol in spring 2023. His proposal to compensate Korean victims of forced labor during World War II using local funds marked a significant step toward reconciliation. This overture led to resumed high-level meetings and the normalization of military relations, which had been strained since a 2018 incident involving radar targeting.

Economic ties have also seen improvement, with both nations collaborating on supply chain vulnerabilities and joint ventures in semiconductors and green energy. Notably, South Korea’s approval of a Japanese gold mine for UNESCO World Heritage status, contingent on Japan’s acknowledgment of forced labor, exemplifies the growing trust between the two countries.

The Importance of Trilateral Cooperation

The trilateral cooperation framework established between Japan, South Korea, and the United States has been pivotal in enhancing security ties. The August 2023 summit at Camp David solidified this partnership, focusing on joint military exercises and intelligence sharing to counter threats from North Korea and China. The Memorandum of Cooperation signed in July 2024 further institutionalized defense engagement, ensuring that these collaborative efforts are sustainable and less susceptible to political shifts.

However, the domestic political landscape in both countries remains a potential obstacle. In South Korea, there has been significant backlash against the gold mine decision, while Japan’s recent leadership elections narrowly avoided the rise of an ultranationalist prime minister. Additionally, the upcoming U.S. presidential election raises questions about the future of American support for this trilateral cooperation.

The EU’s Strategic Opportunity

Given the current geopolitical dynamics, the EU has a unique opportunity to strengthen its relations with both Japan and South Korea. While it cannot replicate the role of the U.S., the EU can play a crucial role in facilitating trilateral initiatives. The political space created by the recent rapprochement between Japan and South Korea allows for the exploration of joint initiatives that could enhance regional stability.

The EU already has a robust policy foundation with both countries, including trade agreements and digital partnerships. By proposing to merge these existing frameworks into a trilateral agreement, the EU could create one of the world’s most powerful trade blocs. This approach would not only enhance economic cooperation but also establish unified standards for data governance, cybersecurity, and emerging technologies.

Collaborative Research and Development

There is also significant potential for joint research and development initiatives in areas such as quantum computing, blockchain, and smart cities. The EU’s Horizon Europe program could support these efforts, emphasizing the creation of resilient supply chains for digital technologies and semiconductors. Furthermore, establishing a trilateral cybersecurity task force could enhance information sharing and joint exercises, bolstering security across all three partners.

Navigating Sensitivities

While the potential for collaboration is vast, EU policymakers must remain sensitive to the delicate balance of the South Korean-Japanese relationship. The historical grievances and domestic political pressures that have long plagued this partnership cannot be overlooked. However, the benefits of joint collaboration are too significant to ignore.

Brussels could initiate this process by proposing a trilateral EU-Japan-South Korea summit to explore initial ideas for cooperation. Even if the response is lukewarm, the act of reaching out could pave the way for future collaboration. Ultimately, fostering cooperation among these three partners promises not only to enhance regional stability in East Asia but also to bolster the EU’s own security and alliances in the face of shared global challenges.

Conclusion

As Japan’s new Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru takes the helm, the evolving dynamics of East Asian relations present a unique opportunity for collaboration. The positive shift in Japan-South Korea relations, coupled with the shared challenges posed by North Korea, Russia, and China, underscores the importance of trilateral cooperation. The EU stands at a crossroads, with the potential to play a significant role in enhancing these ties and addressing common security concerns. By navigating the complexities of this relationship with care and foresight, the EU can contribute to a more stable and secure East Asia, ultimately benefiting its own strategic interests in an increasingly interconnected world.