Navigating the Complex Security Landscape of the Gulf Arab States

In an era marked by both traditional and non-traditional security threats, the Gulf Arab states are confronted with a complex matrix of challenges. From Iran’s military and proxy activities to the shifting dynamics of U.S. power, the growing influence of China, and the pressing impacts of climate change, the region’s security landscape is evolving rapidly. These external threats are further complicated by internal vulnerabilities, highlighting the urgent need for Gulf nations to recalibrate their security strategies.

Fragmented Security Frameworks: A Continuing Challenge

Despite ongoing efforts to bolster regional security, Gulf Arab countries have yet to overcome their historical reliance on external guarantors, primarily the United States. This dependency has persisted since the British withdrawal from East of Suez and is exacerbated by internal rivalries and divergent responses to regional conflicts. The lack of a cohesive Gulf-wide military framework leaves the region vulnerable, particularly as threats evolve and require an integrated response.

While some Gulf states, such as Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain, maintain formal defense cooperation agreements with Washington, the absence of collective security efforts is particularly troubling. The evolving nature of threats necessitates a unified defense strategy, yet the historical fragmentation continues to hinder progress.

Shifting Global Dynamics: The Impact of U.S. Policy Changes

The U.S. military presence has long been a cornerstone of Gulf security. However, the shifting global order—characterized by U.S. competition with Russia and China, along with Washington’s growing focus on the Indo-Pacific—has raised questions about the sustainability of American commitments. Major incidents, such as the 2019 drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil plant and the 2022 strikes on Abu Dhabi oil tanker trucks, have underscored this uncertainty. Washington’s tepid responses to these incidents prompted Saudi Arabia and the UAE to reevaluate their traditional security relationships and explore alternative partnerships.

Iran: The Regional Power Disruptor

Iran remains the most pressing security concern for Gulf monarchies, despite the March 2023 Saudi-Iranian rapprochement brokered by Beijing. Tehran’s ballistic missile program, advanced drone capabilities, and extensive network of proxy groups have destabilized the region. Despite significant investments in military procurement, Gulf states have struggled to effectively contain or deter Iran’s influence. The imbalance between Iran’s asymmetric warfare tactics and the conventional military forces of the Gulf Arab states has become increasingly pronounced, prompting urgent discussions on enhancing deterrence capabilities.

The conflict in Yemen, particularly the Houthi attacks on commercial vessels since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, has added another layer of complexity to Gulf security. Maritime instability along the Red Sea has surged, exacerbated by increased migration from the Horn of Africa and the Houthis’ collaboration with groups like Al-Shabaab, raising concerns about human trafficking and piracy.

Localizing Defense Production and Pursuing Strategic Autonomy

Recognizing the limitations of relying on external powers, Gulf nations are diversifying their defense procurement and developing indigenous arms manufacturing capabilities. While the U.S. remains their primary supplier, Gulf countries are increasingly turning to other partners, including China, South Korea, India, European nations, and Turkey.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have launched ambitious programs to localize defense production, supported by longstanding foreign suppliers. For instance, in February 2024, Saudi Arabia awarded subcontracts for local production of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) launchers and missile system components. While achieving global competitiveness remains challenging, localization offers Gulf states strategic autonomy and greater flexibility in defense and foreign policy.

However, success hinges on addressing challenges in research and development, skilled labor, and technical expertise. Intra-Gulf cooperation holds promise, as evidenced by the UAE’s NIMR announcing plans to build a military vehicle plant in Saudi Arabia. Yet, the formation of joint Gulf defense industries remains a distant prospect.

Continued Dependence on U.S. Security Backing

Despite ongoing efforts to boost self-reliance, Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue to seek stronger security backing from the U.S. This push is driven by the recognition that external support remains crucial for addressing complex regional threats. Washington has shown renewed interest in responding to these demands, formalizing and deepening military ties with key allies. Agreements like the 2024 Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement with Bahrain reflect this strategy, aiming to strengthen regional stability and counterbalance China’s growing influence.

While recent developments have delayed closer U.S.-Saudi ties, cooperation with the UAE has accelerated. The UAE’s designation as a Major Defense Partner underscores its strategic importance to U.S. policy in the region, potentially granting access to advanced systems and enhancing missile defense capabilities.

Towards Regional Resilience: Addressing Non-Traditional Security Risks

The notion of security has evolved beyond state-based military conflicts to encompass non-state actors and unconventional threats that undermine societal stability. Gulf monarchies, historically reliant on external military alliances, are increasingly vulnerable to non-traditional risks, including climate change, resource scarcity, food security, and drug trafficking.

Climate Change and Water Scarcity

The Gulf is among the most water-stressed regions globally, facing rising temperatures that threaten to render parts of it uninhabitable. The reliance on energy-intensive desalination exacerbates environmental challenges, while dependence on imported food heightens vulnerability to global supply chain disruptions. Gulf nations are employing various water management approaches and investing in sustainability initiatives, such as Riyadh’s Green Saudi initiative, which aims to plant billions of trees and generate 50% of energy from renewables by 2030.

Food Security

Food security is a pressing concern, as the region imports 80-90% of its food, making it highly susceptible to supply chain disruptions. Gulf nations are diversifying food sources through vertical farming and overseas agricultural investments, but competition for resources can exacerbate tensions.

Transnational Drug Trafficking

The illicit trafficking of Captagon, a potent amphetamine, poses a significant non-traditional security challenge. The rampant abuse of Captagon has fueled addiction, particularly among youth, while financing militant groups in conflict zones. Enhancing border security and regional cooperation is crucial to address this urgent threat.

The Energy Transition and Economic Diversification

As global energy demand shifts, Gulf states must diversify their economies to mitigate the risks of over-reliance on fossil fuels. Investments in sectors such as tourism, technology, and finance are essential for building a sustainable economic foundation. However, the slow pace of these transitions indicates challenging times ahead.

Cybersecurity and Technological Vulnerabilities

Cyber threats have escalated alongside the Gulf’s rapid digitalization of infrastructure and defense systems. The region’s dependence on advanced technology makes it a prime target for cyberattacks. Gulf governments are prioritizing cybersecurity frameworks and collaborating with international partners, though digital transformation often outpaces security measures.

In the Line of Fire: The Risk of Regional Escalation

The Israel-Hamas conflict, Israel’s military operations in Lebanon, and heightened tensions with Iran create serious risks for Gulf security. Gulf Arab states have united in seeking a Gaza ceasefire to prevent the conflict from escalating. The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran heightened fears of instability, prompting GCC nations to call for regional peace.

While Iran’s retaliatory actions did not directly threaten the Gulf, the implications were deeply felt across the region. Gulf states are increasingly wary of potential disruptions to their economic and security interests, particularly regarding maritime security.

Navigating a Multipolar Security Landscape

The Gulf Arab states find themselves at a critical juncture, navigating a multipolar security environment where reliance on external powers is becoming increasingly tenuous. While the U.S. remains a key partner, the growing complexity of security challenges—spanning Iranian aggression, environmental vulnerabilities, and internal political rivalries—demands a more adaptable, self-sufficient approach.

The ongoing violence in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Hamas war and its expansion into Lebanon, threatens to postpone key transnational connectivity projects and undermine the pragmatism that has characterized Gulf diplomacy. Gulf regimes have shown little enthusiasm for openly supporting Hamas and view Hezbollah with distrust. However, they remain cautious, mindful of the broad appeal of the Palestinian resistance and the risk of militant resurgence.

Ultimately, achieving ambitious economic diversification goals hinges on maintaining regional stability. The Gulf monarchies’ ability to swiftly address both traditional and non-traditional threats will determine their security and prosperity in the years to come.