The Future of India-US Relations: A Pivotal Moment Ahead of the 2024 Presidential Election

As the United States approaches the pivotal presidential election on November 5, 2024, India’s foreign policy—particularly its evolving relationship with the US—takes center stage once again. The potential return of former President Donald Trump or the ascent of Vice President Kamala Harris as the first woman president could significantly reshape this crucial partnership, influencing the geopolitical landscape in profound ways. India’s steadfast commitment to strategic autonomy, its nuanced stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and its active engagement in BRICS further complicate the strategic interests shared by both nations. This dynamic becomes even more critical as they confront China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, highlighting the complexities and stakes involved in the future of India-US relations.

A Look Back: The Trump Era

During Trump’s presidency from 2017 to 2021, India-US relations saw notable progress, bolstered by the strong personal rapport between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Their chemistry translated into tangible results, aligning Trump’s policies on China with India’s strategic objectives. Both leaders viewed China’s rise as a security challenge, collaborating to enhance defense ties, expand economic cooperation, and deepen their Indo-Pacific collaboration.

This era of cooperation was marked by several significant developments. High-profile events like “Howdy Modi” in Houston in 2019 and “Namaste Trump” in India in 2020 showcased the strengthening of their strategic partnership, culminating in the elevation to the US-India Strategic Comprehensive Global Partnership. Trump’s policies facilitated increased access for India to advanced US defense technology, while joint exercises, including the Malabar Naval Exercise, enhanced India’s role in regional security. Additionally, Trump’s 2018 National Security Strategy, emphasizing “Great Power Competition,” positioned India as a crucial counterweight to China within the US strategic framework.

However, this period was not without its challenges. Trade disputes persisted as Trump took a hard stance on tariffs, impacting Indian exports to the US. Despite these economic frictions, strategic convergence on security issues held the relationship steady. Trump’s straightforward, transactional approach allowed India to pursue its strategic autonomy, enabling it to balance its historical ties with Russia while cooperating with the US. This was evident in India’s careful stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where it refrained from outright condemnation of Moscow. Trump’s administration valued India’s growth and stability as critical in countering China’s influence in Asia—an approach likely to shape US policy under a potential Trump 2.0.

The Biden-Harris Administration: A New Approach

The Biden-Harris administration brought a more nuanced approach to India-US relations. Initial concerns in India about a potential cooling of ties due to the administration’s emphasis on human rights were alleviated as Biden prioritized the partnership, especially given Harris’s personal connections to India. The administration views India as central to its Indo-Pacific strategy, emphasizing coalition-building to counterbalance China’s influence.

Under the Biden administration, the US-India relationship has transformed into a Next-Generation Partnership, emphasizing collaboration on shared challenges such as climate change, health, and emerging technologies. The Quad partnership, which includes the US, India, Japan, and Australia, serves as a multilateral framework to tackle regional challenges in the Indo-Pacific. Key agreements, including the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), strengthened defense and cybersecurity partnerships. Investments in India’s technology and manufacturing sectors surged, fueled by a “China Plus One” strategy and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), enhancing economic engagement.

Despite these advancements, challenges persist. Biden’s focus on values-driven diplomacy has occasionally raised concerns in India regarding its democratic practices. Should Harris assume the presidency, she may face pressure to advocate more strongly for values-driven diplomacy, potentially testing the resilience of the relationship despite strategic imperatives. India’s ties to Russia further complicate matters; while Biden nudges India toward Western positions on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India continues to maintain its policy of strategic autonomy, emphasizing its longstanding defense relationship with Moscow. India’s participation in BRICS—an organization focused on counterbalancing Western hegemony—further underscores its desire to shape a multipolar world order that offers autonomy outside any one sphere of influence.

Shared Strategic Interests Amidst Challenges

A consistent factor in India-US relations across administrations has been their shared strategic interest in managing an increasingly assertive China. The assertive Chinese actions, including territorial claims and military buildups, have heightened security concerns, making India and the US natural partners in maintaining Indo-Pacific stability. Trump’s administration took an assertive stance on China, complementing India’s firm response to Chinese incursions in Ladakh in 2020. Should Trump return to office, his approach would likely continue to focus on containing China’s influence.

Conversely, the Biden administration emphasizes a networked security strategy, relying on alliances like the Quad to tackle regional challenges. Biden has positioned India as a leader in shaping the Indo-Pacific’s security and economic frameworks, allowing India to maintain its strategic autonomy while working within a multilateral model. If Harris assumes office, her administration may blend value-based alliances with pragmatic concerns over China, navigating potential friction on sensitive issues while keeping India central to the Indo-Pacific calculus.

Enduring Challenges and the Path Forward

Regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins, several enduring challenges in the India-US relationship will remain. Trade issues persist, with protectionist policies hindering deeper economic integration. Expanding trade cooperation will require compromises from both sides to unlock the relationship’s full potential. Additionally, defense technology cooperation poses a challenge; the US has historically been cautious about sharing advanced technology with India, complicating efforts to deepen ties amidst China’s rise.

India’s participation in BRICS reflects its interest in fostering a multipolar global order, balancing its engagement with the US on Indo-Pacific security while collaborating with non-Western allies. This commitment to a diversified foreign policy underscores India’s strategic autonomy, which will be crucial under either leadership.

Conclusion: A Defining Partnership

In summary, the India-US partnership has demonstrated resilience across administrations, grounded in shared strategic concerns despite occasional differences in values. A Trump administration would likely emphasize a transactional relationship focused on security and economic pragmatism, while a Harris administration might integrate strategic priorities with value-based diplomacy. In both scenarios, India remains central to US interests in the Indo-Pacific. This defining partnership of the 21st century, while facing complex challenges, offers mutual benefits in addressing regional and global security concerns, positioning India and the US as pillars of stability and prosperity in a rapidly evolving world order.

As the election approaches, the world watches closely, aware that the outcome will not only shape the future of India-US relations but also influence the broader geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.