Toward a Coherent Framework for US-China Tech Competition in the Global South

In the rapidly evolving landscape of global technology, the competition between the United States and China has emerged as a defining feature of international relations, particularly in the Global South. As the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and the Global China Hub embark on a three-year project to assess this competition, it is crucial for strategists and policymakers to understand the stakes involved and the framework within which this rivalry unfolds.

Strategic Context

Since the end of World War II, the United States and its allies have fostered a rules-based international system that has facilitated unprecedented levels of global prosperity and poverty reduction. However, China, a significant beneficiary of this system, seeks to reshape it to better reflect its authoritarian model and state capitalism. This ambition threatens to undermine the democratic values and economic progress that have characterized the postwar era.

At the heart of this geopolitical struggle lies technological development. The competition for technological supremacy is not merely about innovation; it is a strategic domain where the U.S. and China vie for influence, particularly in developing nations. The Global South, a term encompassing a diverse range of developing countries, has become a focal point for this contest, with China aggressively courting these nations through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The Stakes of Tech Competition

The competition between the U.S. and China in the Global South can be understood through three critical dimensions: geopolitical, economic, and normative.

Geopolitical Stakes

China has made significant inroads into the Global South by leveraging technology investments to cultivate diplomatic relationships. The Digital Silk Road, an extension of the BRI, aims to enhance digital infrastructure across numerous developing nations. By providing broadband access and telecommunications networks, China has positioned itself as a preferred partner for many countries, particularly in Africa.

However, these technological exports are not without consequences. Reports indicate that Chinese surveillance technologies are being used to bolster authoritarian regimes, suppress dissent, and influence governance in recipient countries. This raises concerns about the long-term implications of China’s technological footprint in the Global South, as it may lead to a shift towards more authoritarian governance models.

Economic Stakes

Economically, China’s tech firms have successfully expanded their influence in the Global South, often benefiting from state support and favorable financing conditions. In 2023, Chinese companies reportedly generated $800 billion in revenues from the Global South, surpassing their earnings from wealthier nations. This economic dominance is exemplified by companies like Huawei, which has become a leading provider of telecommunications infrastructure in many developing countries.

While Huawei’s products are viewed with suspicion in the Global North due to security concerns, many countries in the Global South have embraced them for their competitive pricing and performance. This reliance on Chinese technology not only strengthens China’s economic position but also ties recipient countries to its technological ecosystem, limiting their options for future partnerships.

Normative Stakes

The normative dimension of this competition revolves around the contrasting visions of governance and technology espoused by the U.S. and China. As China advances its technological agenda, it promotes an alternative set of principles that diverge from the democratic values upheld by the West. This is particularly evident in the realm of artificial intelligence (AI), where China’s regulatory framework reflects its authoritarian values.

China’s approach to AI governance emphasizes state control and censorship, raising concerns about the potential for misinformation and the suppression of dissent. As China seeks to establish itself as a leader in AI development, its influence may shape the global narrative around technology, potentially undermining democratic norms.

Conclusion: Questions for Further Research

As the U.S. and its allies navigate this complex landscape, several critical questions emerge:

1. What is China’s tech footprint in the Global South? A comprehensive understanding of China’s technological influence requires a standardized set of metrics to assess its impact across various sectors.

2. How does the competition play out across different technology categories? Distinguishing between strategic, commercial, and dual-use technologies is essential for understanding the nuances of this competition.

3. What do countries in the Global South seek from tech exporters? Understanding the interests and perspectives of these nations is crucial for formulating effective strategies to engage with them.

4. How can the U.S. and its allies develop effective tech-centric strategies? Crafting a coherent response to China’s influence necessitates an appreciation of the diverse motivations and interests of countries in the Global South.

In conclusion, the U.S.-China tech competition in the Global South presents both challenges and opportunities. By developing a coherent framework that addresses the geopolitical, economic, and normative stakes involved, policymakers can better navigate this complex landscape and work towards a more equitable and democratic global technology ecosystem.

About the Authors

Peter Engelke is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, focusing on strategic foresight, technological disruption, and geopolitics.

Samantha Wong is a program assistant with the Global China Hub, where she researches and develops solutions to the challenges posed by China’s rise.

Acknowledgements

The Atlantic Council extends its gratitude to the Tides Foundation for supporting this publication and its ongoing work on global challenges related to China’s influence.

Global China Hub

The Global China Hub is dedicated to researching and devising solutions to the global challenges posed by China’s rise, amplifying the Atlantic Council’s efforts across its various programs and centers.