Beijing’s Expanding Influence in North Africa: A Strategic Overview

In recent years, the narrative surrounding China’s engagement in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has often overlooked the latter. However, Beijing’s strategic outreach to North Africa, particularly the Maghreb region, has been gaining momentum. This was underscored during the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) Ministerial Conference held in Beijing in September 2024, where China showcased its deepening ties with the region.

The Significance of FOCAC

Established in 2000 at the behest of the African Union, FOCAC aims to enhance and institutionalize China’s presence across the African continent. The forum, which convenes every three years, alternates between Beijing and an African capital, facilitating cooperation across various sectors, including youth leadership, health, and poverty reduction. Notably, Africa is the first destination for China’s foreign minister each year, a tradition that has persisted for three decades. In January 2024, Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Egypt, Tunisia, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire, signaling China’s commitment to strengthening its diplomatic ties in North Africa.

FOCAC includes nine Arab League member states—Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Somalia, Sudan, and Tunisia—indicating its broader impact on the Middle East as well. These countries have also engaged with China through the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF), established in 2002, which mirrors FOCAC’s framework. The recent CASCF Senior Officials’ Meeting in May 2024 further solidified these ties, with several developments announced between China and North African participants.

Strategic Partnerships and Economic Cooperation

At the CASCF meeting, Tunisia announced the establishment of a strategic partnership with China, a move that reflects Beijing’s desire to enhance its diplomatic presence in North Africa. While Tunisia’s bilateral trade with China was modest at $3.94 billion in 2022, the potential for growth is significant. In contrast, Iraq, another strategic partner, had a trade volume of $52 billion with China in the same year, highlighting the varying degrees of strategic importance assigned to different countries.

Libya, which had seen limited Chinese cooperation since the evacuation of 36,000 citizens in 2011, is also re-engaging with Beijing. The Libyan-Chinese Economic Forum, attended by 84 Chinese companies, marked a renewed interest in reconstruction efforts. Discussions between Libyan officials and Chinese diplomats have focused on activating existing agreements and facilitating the return of Chinese companies to the country.

Egypt remains China’s most significant partner in North Africa, with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi attending the CASCF for the eighth time since taking office in 2014. The two nations celebrated the ten-year anniversary of their comprehensive strategic partnership, pledging deeper cooperation in various sectors, including technology, renewable energy, and cultural exchanges.

Infrastructure and Industrial Development

China’s engagement in North Africa is not limited to diplomatic relations; it extends to substantial investments in infrastructure and industrial development. In Morocco, for instance, China Railway Engineering signed a $350 million contract to develop a high-speed rail line, while a Chinese textile company announced a $422 million investment to establish industrial complexes, projected to create 11,000 jobs.

Moreover, Morocco’s ambition to become a major electric vehicle (EV) producer has attracted significant Chinese investment. Companies like Gotion High Tech and others are establishing EV battery factories, capitalizing on Morocco’s strategic location and trade agreements with the European Union and the United States.

Algeria is also witnessing a surge in Chinese investment, particularly in the automotive and military sectors. Three Chinese car manufacturers plan to set up factories in Algeria, while the country has inducted Chinese military technology into its defense arsenal, aligning with its broader strategy of diversifying its military capabilities.

The Broader Implications of Chinese Engagement

China’s growing presence in North Africa has the potential to reshape the region’s economic landscape. Historically described as one of the least integrated regions globally, North Africa is now witnessing the emergence of intra-regional industrial chains and business clusters, driven by Chinese investments and partnerships.

As Beijing continues to deepen its ties with North African countries, the implications for regional stability, economic development, and international relations are profound. The strategic partnerships being forged today could lay the groundwork for a more interconnected and economically vibrant North Africa in the future.

Conclusion

In conclusion, China’s expanding influence in North Africa is a multifaceted phenomenon characterized by strategic partnerships, economic cooperation, and significant investments in infrastructure and industry. As the region navigates its complex geopolitical landscape, the seeds planted by Beijing today may yield substantial benefits for both China and North African nations in the years to come. Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, emphasizes that understanding this dynamic is crucial for grasping the future trajectory of North Africa’s development and its role in the global economy.