Arab News-YouGov Poll Predicts Huge Arab-American Turnout in Upcoming Election, Palestine Tops Priorities

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, a recent YouGov poll commissioned by the Arab News Research & Studies Unit reveals a significant trend among Arab Americans: an anticipated voter turnout of 87%. This surge in electoral engagement is underscored by a strong focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has emerged as the community’s top priority. The poll also indicates a surprising lead for former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris, with only a 2 percentage point difference between the two candidates.

Poll Insights and Context

Conducted between September 26 and October 1, the survey sampled 500 Arab Americans nationwide. The findings resonate with an earlier poll by the Arab American Institute (AAI) from May, which highlighted a decline in support for the Democratic Party among Arab Americans, largely attributed to President Joe Biden’s handling of the ongoing Gaza conflict. At that time, Biden’s approval rating within the community was alarmingly low, hovering just under 20%.

James Zogby, president of the AAI, articulated the community’s sentiments during a recent webinar, stating that Arab Americans are "still seething over the pain of Gaza … and they’re not willing to put that away." This emotional response is likely to shape their voting behavior in the upcoming election.

Michigan: A Key Battleground

Michigan, home to one of the largest Arab-American populations in the United States, has become a focal point for both Trump and Harris as they campaign for votes. According to Associated Press tracking, Trump has held 15 campaign events in Michigan since April, while Harris has made 11 visits since becoming the Democratic nominee. The attention on Michigan underscores the importance of the Arab-American vote in this critical battleground state.

In a recent interview with Al Arabiya, Trump expressed his pride in having a grandchild of Arab descent, referencing his daughter Tiffany’s marriage to Lebanese businessman Michael Boulos. This personal connection may resonate with some voters, despite Trump’s historical support for Israeli policies.

Complex Voting Dynamics

The Arab News-YouGov poll reveals a paradoxical trend: despite Trump’s perceived alignment with the Israeli government, many Arab Americans are considering voting for him. This inclination appears to stem from a broader dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s response to the Gaza crisis, which many in the community view as inadequate. The poll suggests that Arab Americans are willing to overlook party affiliation in favor of candidates who they believe will better address their concerns regarding Palestine.

When asked about their top priorities, respondents overwhelmingly chose the Israeli-Palestinian conflict over pressing domestic issues such as the economy or cost of living. Faisal J. Abbas, Editor-in-Chief of Arab News, commented on the significance of these findings, stating, "The polling figures are very telling. They show that the Las Vegas rules clearly don’t apply to our region — what happens in the Middle East clearly doesn’t stay in the Middle East."

The Broader Implications

The U.S. government’s actions, including blocking several ceasefire motions at the UN Security Council and continuing arms sales to Israel, have further fueled Arab Americans’ frustrations. Although Arab Americans represent only about 1% of the U.S. electorate, their votes could prove pivotal in a tightly contested election. Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, emphasized the importance of the Arab-American vote, noting that in many states, the margin of victory could be as slim as 0.5%. This makes the Arab-American community a crucial constituency that candidates cannot afford to overlook.

Conclusion

As the election draws near, the Arab-American community is poised to play a significant role in shaping the outcome. With a high anticipated turnout and a clear prioritization of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, candidates will need to address these concerns head-on to secure support. The dynamics of this election highlight the intersection of domestic politics and international issues, underscoring the importance of understanding the unique perspectives of Arab Americans in the broader electoral landscape.

For further insights and detailed coverage, visit Arab News.