The Critical Phase of Election Security: A Look Ahead to Post-Election Day

As the ballots are cast and the polls close, the culmination of a campaign fraught with tension, animosity, and even assassination attempts will soon be upon us. However, for U.S. adversaries, the end of the election may signal the beginning of a more insidious phase of interference in American democracy. The hours and days following the election could present foreign adversaries like Russia, Iran, and China, as well as domestic extremist groups, with a prime opportunity to disrupt the electoral process and undermine public confidence in the results.

The Window of Vulnerability

While the months leading up to the November 5 election have seen a concerted effort to spread disinformation, the immediate aftermath of voting could be the most critical period for potential meddling. As Americans flock online to check results and share their opinions, the risk of encountering misleading information skyrockets. A seemingly innocuous photo or an AI-generated video alleging vote tampering could incite outrage and lead to real-world consequences before authorities have a chance to verify the claims.

Senator Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat and chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, emphasizes the gravity of this situation. "It’s not like at the end of election night, particularly assuming how close this election will be, that this will be over," he warns. The potential for misinformation to spread rapidly post-election could be as significant as the disinformation campaigns that preceded it.

The Mechanics of Misinformation

Analysts are particularly concerned about the effectiveness of disinformation campaigns in the hours following the polls closing. A well-timed piece of false information could severely damage public confidence in the electoral process, especially if it targets key swing states or influential voting blocs. Scenarios that could unfold include:

• Out-of-context footage of election workers manipulated to suggest fraud.
• Deepfake videos featuring candidates confessing to electoral misconduct.
• Robocalls aimed at non-English speakers, misleading them about voting procedures.

The challenge with misinformation that emerges immediately after the election is that there is often little time for local election officials, law enforcement, or news organizations to counteract the falsehoods before they gain traction.

Lessons from the Past

The events of the 2020 election serve as a stark reminder of the dangers posed by misinformation. A barrage of false claims about the election results fueled the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. Many individuals arrested for attempting to disrupt the transfer of power cited debunked narratives about election fraud that proliferated shortly after Election Day.

In a particularly close election, the risk of misinformation could be exacerbated. For instance, unfounded rumors about illegal ballots could significantly influence public perception, even if the actual results are legitimate. The 2020 election, while not particularly close in terms of the final outcome, still saw widespread belief in false claims of vote-rigging among many supporters of then-President Donald Trump.

The Long Shadow of Misinformation

The period between Election Day and Inauguration Day on January 20 presents a lengthy window for those seeking to sow doubt about the election results. This time frame allows adversaries—whether foreign propaganda agencies or domestic extremist groups—to amplify their narratives without immediate pushback.

Ryan LaSalle, CEO of cybersecurity firm Nisos, expresses his concerns about the potential for unrest during this critical period. "The time to stay most focused is right now through the peaceful transfer of power," he states, highlighting the heightened risk of real-world actions that could disrupt this process.

Cybersecurity Threats

In addition to disinformation campaigns, there is also the looming threat of cyberattacks on local or state election systems. While the intent may not be to alter votes directly, such attacks could create doubt about the integrity of the electoral process. Microsoft President Brad Smith has noted that the most perilous time may come just 48 hours before the election, as adversaries may attempt to exploit vulnerabilities in the system.

The Evolution of Disinformation

The threat of election disinformation is not new; it first gained prominence in 2016 when Russian operatives hacked into the campaign of Democrat Hillary Clinton and created networks of fake social media accounts to disseminate false information. Since then, the landscape has evolved, with social media becoming a primary source of news for many voters. Intelligence officials warn that adversaries like Russia and China will continue to expand their use of online disinformation as part of a long-term strategy that transcends any single election or candidate.

Reassurances from Election Officials

Despite the challenges posed by disinformation and cyber threats, election security officials are keen to reassure the public about the resilience of the U.S. electoral system. Jen Easterly, director of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, has stated that malicious actors would be unable to impact the election outcome at scale. Improvements to the electoral system have made it more robust against attempts to alter votes, even as influence operations seek to undermine public trust.

Conclusion

As the nation approaches Election Day, the focus must remain on safeguarding the electoral process from both disinformation and cyber threats. The hours and days following the election will be critical, and vigilance is essential to ensure a peaceful transfer of power. While the challenges are significant, the commitment to protecting American democracy remains steadfast. The resilience of the electoral system, combined with proactive measures to counter misinformation, will be vital in preserving public confidence in the democratic process.